SC Conference - Activity Details

Predicting the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008) with the NASA High-resolution Global Model and Supercomputers

Bo-Wen Shen  (University of Maryland)
Wei-Kuo Tao  (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center)
Posters Session
Tuesday,  05:15PM - 07:00PM
Room Rotunda Lobby
Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers (e.g., NASA Columbia and Pleiades) have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic (e.g., timing and location) the high-resolution global model can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, global high-resolution simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days.
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